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* Ten-year annualized return to 2025, so far, for S&P’s 500 was 7.93%. That’s about normal*. Over the same decade, though, from 2014, the Dow Jones Canada Select Dividend Return was just 2.75%. How come just 2.75%? It’s a long story, but essentially professionals do not select the right companies. (Notice that the title does not say dividend growth). Over the last ten years, the average dividend growth of the 24 companies the Connolly Report follows¡ was 8.2%. Our yields, on average, grew from 3.1% in 2014 to 6.9%. * I would not buy an index now (March 20 2025): It’s way to expensive now! | * Ten-year annualized return to 2025, so far, for S&P’s 500 was 7.93%. That’s about normal*. Over the same decade, though, from 2014, the Dow Jones Canada Select Dividend Return was just 2.75%. How come just 2.75%? It’s a long story, but essentially professionals do not select the right companies. (Notice that the title does not say dividend growth). Over the last ten years, the average dividend growth of the 24 companies the Connolly Report follows¡ was 8.2%. Our yields, on average, grew from 3.1% in 2014 to 6.9%. * I would not buy an index now (March 20 2025): It’s way to expensive now! | ||
* Here an example of the annual dividend from one company we follow going back to 2000: .09 .10 .11 .12 .15 .17 .19 .21 .23 .25 .26 .28 .31 .33 .35 .38 .40 .42 .43 .48 .50 .60 .63 .695 and .765 in 2024. Does your income grow 8.9% a year? (It’s a double at 7.2%). Is your investment return this steady? There is the bonus also: **price tracks the dividend rate** (price on this fine Canadian company went from $5 to $45 - a CAGR of 9.2% - the yield has now grown to 15% (actual cash coming in quarterly) See why I do not buy bonds (there has to be growth). Income growth drives total return. Wealth builds year-by-year. Think about this retirement strategy. Your wealth managers will not suggest it, as she/he probably does not know or believe it works. | * Here an example of the annual dividend from one company we follow going back to 2000: .09 .10 .11 .12 .15 .17 .19 .21 .23 .25 .26 .28 .31 .33 .35 .38 .40 .42 .43 .48 .50 .60 .63 .695 and .765 in 2024. Does your income grow 8.9% a year? (It’s a double at 7.2%). Is your investment return this steady? There is the bonus also: **price tracks the dividend rate** (price on this fine Canadian company went from $5 to $45 - a CAGR of 9.2% - the yield has now grown to 15% (actual cash coming in quarterly) See why I do not buy bonds (there has to be growth). Income growth drives total return. Wealth builds year-by-year. Think about this retirement strategy. Your wealth managers will not suggest it, as she/he probably does not know or believe it works. | ||
- | **NOTE**: our income does __not__ depend on the stock market. Our income comes directly from the companies we own (deposited in our account). There is no middle-person trying to sell an ETF. | + | **NOTE**: our income does __not__ depend on the stock market. Our income comes directly from the companies we own (deposited♣ in our account). There is no middle-person trying to sell an ETF. |
- | * NOTE: #2 Realize that the first dividend increase from 9¢ to 10¢ is an increase of 11%. And that continues year after year: piddly at the start but a powerful yield now at 15% plus the price gains and the safe feeling. | + | * NOTE: #2 Realize that the first dividend increase from 9¢ to 10¢, though just a penny, |
- | * another direct investing example: | + | * |
- | **National Bank** - The dividend was $2.28 a year when we bought National Bank in 2007 (2.28 / 2 = 1.14 a year accounting for the 2014 split). Now (April 2025) the dividend is $1.14 a quarter | + | Here’s |
- | * **Buy now?** You might be asking, is NA a good buy now? I use these value indicators: yield now is 3.82%, it’s average is 3.9%; cyclical P/E 21, average is 19; ten year earnings are $6.19 vs a dividend of $1.14; dividend increase in 2025 was 6.3% with a 16 year track record of dividend increases; CAGR on the dividend has been 8% since 2007 vs price CAGR of 8.6%. So, NA is a bit expensive. | + | |
+ | **National Bank** - The dividend was $2.28 a year when we bought National Bank in 2007 (actually $2.28 / 2 = 1.14 a year, after accounting for the 2014 stock split). Now (April 2025) the dividend is up to $1.14 __a quarter__ | ||
+ | * **Buy now?** You might be asking, is NA a good buy now in April 2025? The Connolly Report uses these value indicators: | ||
* Jan 26 2025 | * Jan 26 2025 | ||
- | * Here simply is what I do. Begin by making, say, a $1,000 direct investment in a fine individual company. The annual dividend yield would be about 3%. Now, that dividend yield would grow at 5% a year and the annual appreciation would be about the same 5%. In 20 years your $1,000 would grow to some $4,000 (342%) That’s it. The magic is simple. Believe it works. Thirteen percent eventually on you money (3+5+5). Repeat year after year and gradually build your very own personal pension. | + | * Here simply is what you do. Begin by making, say, a $1,000 direct investment in a fine individual company. The annual dividend yield would be about 3% or so. Now, that dividend yield should |
* March 2025 - What’s | * March 2025 - What’s | ||
- | Nov 1 2024 → The Connolly Report blog in October is essentially a practice run for our year-end, decade-long summary. This decade-long summary is done every year. My dividend data goes back to 1977. We show the list of the companies followed, their dividend and yield in 2014 (ten years ago) and their dividend and yield this year. On average, the dividend grew by 8.4%. Does your retirement income grow by eight point four percent a year? We are not counting capital gains here. Our yield grew to 6.9% and prices | + | Nov 1 2024 → The Connolly Report blog in October is essentially a practice run for our year-end, decade-long summary. This decade-long summary is done every year. My dividend data goes back to 1977. We show the list of the companies followed, their dividend and yield in 2014 (ten years ago) and their dividend and yield this year. On average, the dividend grew by 8.4%. Does your retirement income grow by eight point four percent a year? We are not counting capital gains here. Our yield grew to 6.9% and prices were up 6.7% a year over this decade. So, every year in the last decade we averaged 8.4 + 6.7 = 15%. This has nothing to do with the stock market. We invest in a few individual companies directly. Then we wait for the yield and price to grow: the strategy depends on the growth of the dividend. Seek only quality companies. |
* July 20 2024 | * July 20 2024 |