h1. FOR THE RECORD

When did you first realize that the financial crisis was very serious? Here's what I was saying and when:

“A prolonged, difficult period of transition is upon us.” Connolly Report front page headline of April 2008 Page 2 April 2008 issue headline:PE Ratios are Declining…think lower returns Page 4 April 2008: Investment Havens in a time of panic“

“Things are not ridiculously cheap.” Connolly Report headline February 2008 issue. this page is linked under Archives - some report pages

December 2007 “Be disciplined. Be cautious. Savour cash. Shun debt. My front page report headline on December 2007 “Standby for a tumultuous 2008” was also on page 1 in December 2007 a quote by Bill Gross “My guess is that a great unwinding has begun.” Tom Connolly December 2007 front page 640

• August 2007: “A severe market drop …

• The Americans are eating their seed corn - December 2004 p 568

• Because of its dividend growth, I said in my June 2007 report, “Power's shares will not dip below the $30 low of 2006” (POW was then selling at $40.) As I key this in late January 2009, Power is trading at $19.50. I underestimated the extent of the possible carnage…by quite a lot
• February 2006 (TCR p.594) Barron's asked Jeremy Grantham where he was funneling money. Mr. Grantham's reply: “Cash”.
• December 1999 front page. The Dow will go to 36,000 'they said'. No said I. Linked under Archives - some report pages