March 2009

Investors “should not harbour fantasies of an immediate return to either previous (and with hindsight, unrealistic) market levels, or to previous high rates of return”. This could be my lead next issue. It's from the Triumph of the Optimists (under Book Reviews ), CS 2008 yearbook by Dimson et al, London School of Business

“The future is bound to feature dramatically reduced borrowing and consumption and lower global growth. In such an environment, income stocks will be in - think utilities and staple goods producers with strong cash flow, little debt and good dividends. And the hunt for capital gains will be almost as fruitless as looking for a moderate on Fox News.” Don't you just love it: three wonderful sentences in a row! This excerpt was from Brian Milner's column in the Report on Business Saturday March 7 2009 'The binge is over, now get ready for the cure'. Milner is able to talk to very interesting people. This time it was Satyajit Das again. I look for Milner's columns…and never watch Fox . It's nice to be able to change this new web site from away…Toronto this time.

“beware of investment activity that produces applause” W. Buffet

Are bank dividends going to hold? Here's more evidence that perhaps the answer is yes. The first quarter results for 2009 are: RY $1.05 billion, down from $1.25 billion; TD $712 million vs $970; BNS $842 up from $835; CIBC $147 million up from a loss of $1.46 billion; BMO $225 vs $255 last year - considering what happened over the last year…not much change

When this is all over, not only will we land on our feet, we'll be running. TC

Our son-in-law and I were discussing the price of the life company shares here in Toronto last night. It's illogical…way below the mean. Today we look after Julia, now 17 months, precious and talking.