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+ | ===== Connolly Report (since 1981) Summaries ===== | ||
+ | - December 2019 Connolly Report, Volume #39 - decade long, year-by-year dividend data for 32 companies with CAGR on both dividends and price as the 2009 average price and the late 2019 prices are included? | ||
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+ | December 2018 Vol 38 #4 ♣ Page 1 is a summary of my 35 years researching dividend growth (in three words: hold quality companies) ♣ a big, wide spreadsheet with 10 years of dividend growth year-by-year for 30 stocks (in YoC order), with CAGR of dividends and CAGR of price over the last decade so that you can study the evidence that as the dividend grows, so does the price. This is the complete list from Rob Carrick' | ||
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+ | September 2018 Vol. 38 #3 (second last PRINT issue) ♣ Page 1. How to get better results investing yourself ♣ Page 2. stock selection from the list: telecoms and banks ♣ Page 3. Our list of dividend growers in yield order ♣ building wealth slowly but surely + Essays of Warren Buffett | ||
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+ | * June 2018 Vol 38 #2 ♣ Page 1 How equities become progressively less risky than bonds; why you can;t do better with and index ETF, return is yield plus growth ♣ Page 2 is comment of the big table on page 3 about Graham value and the three types of dividend growth stocks ♣ Page 3 is the annual list of 41 dividend growth stocks with earnings, yield, Graham value, five year dividend growth in Graham % Difference order: less expensive ones on top, dear on the bottom ♣ Twelve reasons why we do not want professional management of our retirement money; why dividend growth investors do better by not using mainstream methodology. | ||
+ | |||
+ | | ||
+ | |||
+ | Louise Connolly | ||
+ | |||
+ | 607 - 185 Ontario Street | ||
+ | |||
+ | Kingston ON K7L 2Y7 | ||
+ | |||
+ | * March 2018 Vol 38 #1 ♣ Page 1 CU yield chart since 1987; durable vs transient returns ♣ Page 2 decade long year-by-year dividend data on 40 dividend growth stocks ♣ Page 3 the list in yield order with cape, Graham value and dividend growth ♣ Asset allocation and re-balancing not needed; comment on the list; 2018 dividend growth data; adroit investing gems from Warren Buffett' | ||
+ | * You can obtain a PRINT copy of this March 2018 report (the fourth last one) for a $10 bill from | ||
+ | |||
+ | Louise Connolly | ||
+ | |||
+ | 607 - 185 Ontario Street | ||
+ | |||
+ | Kingston ON K7L 2Y7 | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | * December 2017 Vol. #37 ♣ Page 1 Seventeen stocks from our ' | ||
+ | |||
+ | Find out the basics of dividend growth investing with a $10 bill (cheques are not legal tender). You can obtain a PRINT copy of this December report from | ||
+ | |||
+ | Louise Connolly | ||
+ | |||
+ | 607 - 185 Ontario Street | ||
+ | |||
+ | Kingston ON K7L 2Y7 | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Volume 37 #3 September 25 2017 - Page 1 is a summary of dividend growth investing, 11.8% return since 2008 on the list ♣ Page 2 provides 2017 summary of bank dividend growth with specific comment on ENB, Home Capital, Exco and Ensign ♣ Page 3 is the list of 28 stocks in yield order with 14 columns of data on each ♣ Page 4 comment on risk, mega start stocks and untested ETFs. | ||
+ | → For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a PRINT copy of this report from | ||
+ | |||
+ | Louise Connolly | ||
+ | |||
+ | 607 - 185 Ontario Street | ||
+ | |||
+ | Kingston ON K7L 2Y7 | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | * Volume 37 #2 June 2017 - Page 1 is a list of great Canadian dividend payers in order of the total dividends paid over the last decade with initial 2008 yields and annual dividend growth for the decade...and comment on the list. High market thoughts from Steven Jarislowsky, | ||
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+ | * Volume 37 #1 March 17 2017 | ||
+ | Page 1 - criteria for stock selection ♣ Page 2 - three cyclicals + selecting from the list + recent dividend increases + internal links (year-over-year dividends for a decade on 42 stocks) ♣ page 3 - Connolly Report list in yield order ♣ Page 4 Why dividend growth investors do better: eight reasons + Warren Buffett' | ||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a PRINT copy of this report from | ||
+ | |||
+ | Denise Emanuel | ||
+ | |||
+ | 475 Scarborough Road | ||
+ | |||
+ | Toronto ON M4E 3N3 | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | * Volume 36 #4 December 19th 2016 | ||
+ | Page 1 - "at full prices", | ||
+ | |||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a PRINT copy of this report from | ||
+ | |||
+ | Denise Emanuel | ||
+ | |||
+ | 475 Scarborough Road | ||
+ | |||
+ | Toronto ON M4E 3N3 | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | * ==== Volume 36 #3 September 2016 ==== | ||
+ | Page 1 - Are we "at full prices"?; | ||
+ | |||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a PRINT copy of this report from | ||
+ | |||
+ | Denise Emanuel | ||
+ | |||
+ | 475 Scarborough Road | ||
+ | |||
+ | Toronto ON M4E 3N3 | ||
+ | |||
+ | * ==== Volume 36 #2 June 2016 ==== our 35th anniversary issue | ||
+ | Page 1 is a summary of what I've learned over the last 35 years about dividend growth investing...five main points. ♣ Page 2 comments on the list of 46 stocks in the list on page 3, intrinsic value for Stella-Jones, | ||
+ | |||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a copy of this report from | ||
+ | |||
+ | Denise Emanuel | ||
+ | |||
+ | 475 Scarborough Road | ||
+ | |||
+ | Toronto ON M4E 3N3 | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ==== Volume 36 #1 March 28 2016 ==== | ||
+ | Page 1 The three investment principles of John Maynard Keynes and a list of 19 reasons to feel good about dividend growth investing ♣ Page 2 is always about specific stocks. This time it's Enbridge and BCE mostly, but also the life insurers, Hydro One, Valeant, Potash. There is a long list of dividend increases this issue. ♣ Page 3 - The list in landscape format for the first time so there is more data on each of the now 29 common stocks (never preferred) ♣ page 4 the components of stock market returns, Fairfax FFH, our strategy summarized, value vs growth, negative interest rates and deflation, dividend reductions and omissions, adverse price overshoots, why ETFs and funds don't work | ||
+ | |||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a copy of this report from our daughter | ||
+ | |||
+ | Denise Emanuel | ||
+ | |||
+ | 475 Scarborough Road | ||
+ | |||
+ | Toronto ON M4E 3N3 | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== Volume 35 #4 December 12 2015 ==== | ||
+ | Page 1 - the market' | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a copy of this report from | ||
+ | |||
+ | Denise Emanuel | ||
+ | |||
+ | 475 Scarborough Road | ||
+ | |||
+ | Toronto ON M4E 3N3 | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ==== Volume 35 #3 September 2015 ==== | ||
+ | Page 1 - The bear market has begun. Do we nibble now or wait for higher yields? Remember the fundamental principle of dividend growth investors. Ignore the indicies: dividend growth investors do not measure progress this way. How we think differently ♣ Page 2 - five ideas for two stock purchases ♣ Connolly Report list in yield difference order: less expensive on top of the list, dear near the bottom ♣ Page 4 What's wealth? On holding; list of White Papers and tables inside the site; a comparison: our portfolio to the methods of funds | ||
+ | |||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a copy of this report from | ||
+ | |||
+ | Denise Emanuel | ||
+ | |||
+ | 475 Scarborough Road | ||
+ | |||
+ | Toronto ON M4E 3N3 | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== Volume 35 #2 June 15 2015 ==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Page 1. Thoughts on buying now or waiting from Hussman, Buttonwood, Klarman, Graham, 48-year-old Warren Buffett, Smithers and Grantham; Which good dividend grower is down $10. ♣ Page 2. Comment on the four dividend growth stock lists in yield order, Graham order and cape order and three specific stocks (IPL, ESI and RCI.B) ♣ Page 3 The Connolly Report main list in yield difference order with a new stock in it and seven comments; Why #1 is really not on top; 19 more dividend increases ♣ Page 4 What's a dividend aristocrat since S& | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a copy of this report from | ||
+ | |||
+ | Denise Emanuel | ||
+ | |||
+ | 475 Scarborough Road | ||
+ | |||
+ | Toronto ON M4E 3N3 | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ==== Volume 35 March 15 2015 ==== since 1981 | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | Page 1. Stock selection, return = Y + DG, two types of dividend growth stocks + MRU dividend data ♣ Bank and insurance stock comment + Emera, Potash, Toromont, Enbridge ♣ Connolly Report list in yield difference order...interesting three stocks on top + 25 more dividend increases ♣ Why dividend growth stock owners hold? Dividend growth rates. | ||
+ | |||
+ | Copy of March issue for a $10 bill from: | ||
+ | * Denise Emanuel | ||
+ | * 475 Scarborough Road | ||
+ | * Toronto ON M4E 3N3 | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ==== December 2014 ==== | ||
+ | ...was mailed in early January 2015 | ||
+ | |||
+ | Page 1 - Buying individual dividend growth stocks, rather than funds, can earn 5% more a year...believe it (Dave Stanley, CMS); eight ways dividend growth investors minimize risk. ♣ Page 2 gets at the essence of dividend growth investing with a list of 16 DG stocks in chronoligal order so we can see what rising yield does. We show the dividend then and now, prices then and now and compare the rate of increase of dividends and prices...there is a message in this data ♣ Page 3 is Connolly Report list and comments ♣ Page 4 details five reasons why dividend growth investors do better, comments on the October market wobble, why it's worth waiting for better prices and yield as an indicator | ||
+ | |||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a copy of this report from | ||
+ | |||
+ | Louise Connolly | ||
+ | |||
+ | 607 - 185 Ontario Street | ||
+ | |||
+ | Kingston ON K7L 2Y7 | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ==== October 2014 ==== | ||
+ | Page 1. Why the bear market will not bother dividend growth investors. Dividend growth is the hidden magic in plain sight. We hold because after ten years, our yield is at least 5%, on average 7% and often about 10%. ♣ Page 2. Value Line cover 61 Canadian stocks. We rate most of them as either over or under valued. We own no bonds and explain why not. ♣ Page 3. Connolly Report list with its new dividend growth stocks added and duds (no recent dividend growth) removed. ♣ Page 4 Current thinking as the market begins its fall. The essence of the difference between what dividend growth investors do and why holders of funds can't beat us. | ||
+ | |||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a copy of this report from | ||
+ | |||
+ | Louise Connolly | ||
+ | |||
+ | 607 - 185 Ontario Street | ||
+ | |||
+ | Kingston ON K7L 2Y7 | ||
+ | |||
+ | We will enclose a copy of our recent paper about dividend growth and retirement financing. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== August 2014 ==== | ||
+ | As of this month, I've been researching dividend growth for 30 years. Page 1 of this August 2014 report summarizes my thoughts. Think a 13.1% annualized return. It's the rising yield which counts. ♣ Page 3 is a list of 44 stocks with at least five years of dividend growth with prices (including Graham' | ||
+ | |||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a copy of this report from our daughter who helps with Connolly Report print edition. On-line subscriptions could be open again soon. | ||
+ | |||
+ | Denise Emanuel has moved | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== June 2014 ==== | ||
+ | Front page: The profit you seek from selling is here now $↓%. Can you dividend growth invest at any time? + risk perception ♣ page 2 lists 50 Canadian common stocks with at least five years of dividend growth in C.A.P.E. order (cyclically adjusted p/e) so we can tell which are cheap/ | ||
+ | |||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a copy of this report from our daughter who helps with Connolly Report print edition. | ||
+ | |||
+ | Denise Emanuel is moving soon | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ==== April 2014 ==== | ||
+ | Front Page: Chart and data about the three components of return from various sources...yield is by far the largest portion. Very little of a stock' | ||
+ | |||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a copy of this report from our daughter who helps with Connolly Report print edition. And Denise will return 85¢ stamp with the report. | ||
+ | |||
+ | Denise Emanuel | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ==== February 2014 ==== | ||
+ | Front Page headline: Yield + Dividend Growth = Return; what to do about distortions in financial markets ♣ page 2 - a list of 35 other common stocks with dividend growth of at least five years with columns for five year dividend growth, yield (the best traditional measure of value), Graham value difference and C.A.P.E. + comments on the list - which ones are reasonably priced ♣ Page 3: my usual list of dividend growth stocks with valuation measures and 25 new dividend increase announcements ♣ Page 4: stock selection from TSE60 in order of yield; The Dao of Capital book by Spitznagel; ETF vs individual dividend growth stocks, falling P/Es, comment on NBF's 34 Dividend All-Stars. So, all told, in this issue there are over 50 common stocks listed with at least a five year record of dividend growth and each is valued as expensive or not using yield, yield difference from average, Graham value and cyclically adjusted p/e (C.A.P.E.). | ||
+ | |||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a copy of this report from our daughter who helps with Connolly Report print edition: | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ==== December 2013 ==== | ||
+ | Front Page headline: Behaviour Control - Winning the Loser' | ||
+ | |||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a copy of this report and a multi-year dividend growth table for the over thirty common stocks I follow plus the new 2013 quarterly dividend payments for some forty stocks. | ||
+ | |||
+ | Louise Connolly | ||
+ | |||
+ | 607 - 185 Ontario Street | ||
+ | |||
+ | Kingston ON K7L 2Y7 | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ===== October 2013 ===== | ||
+ | Front page - a table showing different results for different combinations of initial yields and dividend growth rates...with comment. Which combination is best? ♣ Page 2 is all on electrical utilities with a longer analysis of Fortis. Is FTS a good buy now or not? How much of it's price increase has been driven by earnings and by an increaseing p/e? I supply a little formula. CU is expensive, TA is not. Also comment on Emera and Atco and a paragraph on Sun Life...why I sold. ♣ Page 3 Connolly Report list in order of yield difference and screens for Graham value and Cape with half a page of observations. ♣ Page four - BMO data, dividend growth investing generally...why it's better. | ||
+ | |||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a copy of this report and a multi-year dividend growth table for the over thirty common stocks I follow plus the new 2013 quarterly dividend payments for some forty stocks. | ||
+ | |||
+ | Louise Connolly | ||
+ | |||
+ | 607 - 185 Ontario Street | ||
+ | |||
+ | Kingston ON K7L 2Y7 | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== August 2013 ==== | ||
+ | Front page: views of a dozen market commentators on this still expensive market, has the secular low in bond yields occurred? ♣ page 2: ideas on certain stocks and sectors - telecoms, cyclicals, renewable energy, lifecos, PKI, L, BA, POT, K, - income focus link to Economist column ♣ page 3 - stock #1 on my list has changed and it's dividend cost per $1 is only $18 and change, revised yield average data ♣ page 4 link to a chart showing market is expensive beyond doubt, alpha* thoughts, dividend yield vs dividend growth, not hedge funds, why my lack of investing activity . * Dividend growth investors obtain alpha (extra return over the market) when dividend growth propels price growth. | ||
+ | |||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a copy of this report from our daughter who helps with Connolly Report print edition: | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== June 2013 ==== | ||
+ | Front page - Comment on the Fed's " | ||
+ | |||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a copy of this report from our daughter who helps with Connolly Report print edition: | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== April 2013 ==== | ||
+ | Page 1 Go for dividend yield or dividend growth...some data; computing equity returns; froth in market...what I'm doing; primary strategy ♣ Page 2 Thoughts from Dr Peter Kirkham about his strategy including computing out the change in p/e from change in price and earnings to see if a stock is over or under valued; paragraphs on seven stocks: ENB, BCE, RCI.B, Power, TransAlta, Suncor and CNQ, Tim's, Loblaw and Empire ♣ Page 3 - The list with revised Graham values, | ||
+ | |||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a copy of this report from our daughter who helps with Connolly Report print edition: | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ==== February 2013 ==== | ||
+ | Page 1 The implications of lower growth, dividend provide most of the return, with ideas from Grantham, Easterling and Dimson, Marsh and Staunton. Page 2 with a high market, I'm culling, Canada' | ||
+ | |||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a copy of this report and our list of stocks buys over the last 20 years from our daughter: | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ===== December 2012 ===== | ||
+ | Page 1 - Quantitative Easing, overpriced stocks, Currency Debasement, holding cash, capital preservation, | ||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a copy of this report and our 42 company 2012 dividend summary from: | ||
+ | * Louise Connolly | ||
+ | * 607 - 185 Ontario Street | ||
+ | * Kingston ON K7L 2Y7 | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== October 2012 ==== | ||
+ | Page 1 - Macro views from Roubini, Shilling, Dent, Rosenberg, Buttonwood, Katsenelson and Mauldin. ♣ Page 2 - Seven major ways to reduce risk with dividend common stock - a full page major paper. ♣ Page 3 - Seven more dividend increases, Emera, AltaGas and five of the banks; the Connolly Report list in order of yield difference with Graham values, dividend growth data, dividends and earnings and cyclically adjusted p/e (cape) + a different comment of this very stratified (financials and non-financials) list. ♣ Page 4 - Comment on six dividend stocks not in Connolly Report list and a yield chart with comment for SNC showing SNC's dividend growth spikes over the last decade: DIVIDEND GROWTH DRIVES PRICE GROWTH. | ||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a copy of this report and our 42 company 2012 dividend summary from: | ||
+ | * Louise Connolly | ||
+ | * 607 - 185 Ontario Street | ||
+ | * Kingston ON K7L 2Y7 | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== August 2012 Connolly Report ==== | ||
+ | Page 1 There will be lower yields for years and it has implications for us as dividend growth stock investors. ♣ Page 2 Mostly about BCE's $19.61 cost per dollar of dividends and our belief in adding yield and dividend growth to estimate our return in a period of low growth. ♣ Page 3 Connolly Report list and comments ♣ Page 4 More on the lifcos, data on Canadian cape (cyclically adjusted price to earnings) and dividend growth investing in the U.K. with Neil Woodford. | ||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a copy of this report from | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ==== June 2012 Connolly Report ==== | ||
+ | Front page title: The Secular Bear Market Continues - ten reasons. ♣ Page 2 - Comment on Enbridge and Manulife, Value Line dividend growth estimates, Telus et al including Shaw and RCI.B. ♣ Page 3 - Connolly Report list with data on price, yields, dividend growth dividends and earnings and cape (cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio). ♣ Page four - three yield charts (Power, Telus, Emera) and a chart of the cost of $1 in dividends since early 2009. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== April 2012 Connolly Report ==== | ||
+ | Front page - Too much risk, not enough reward...2.6% a year if you buy now (as Shiller' | ||
+ | |||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a copy of this report and our six year dividend growth summary from our daughter. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== February 2012 Connolly Report ==== | ||
+ | There' | ||
+ | |||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a copy of this report and our six year dividend growth summary from: Louise Connolly, 607 - 185 Ontario St. Kingston ON K7L 2Y7 | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== December 2011 Connolly Report ==== | ||
+ | ♣ Front page: Looking for yields and entry points - focus on quality dividend-payer, | ||
+ | |||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a copy of this report and our 2011 dividend growth stock summary list from: Louise Connolly, 607 - 185 Ontario St. Kingston ON K7L 2Y7 | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===== October 2011 Connolly Report ===== | ||
+ | |||
+ | ♣ Front page: " | ||
+ | |||
+ | For a $10 bill, cheques are not legal tender, you can obtain a copy of this report and our 2011 dividend growth stock summary list from: | ||
+ | Louise Connolly, 607 - 185 Ontario St. Kingston ON K7L 2Y7 | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== August 2011 Connolly Report ==== | ||
+ | ♣ Front page: A 6% Probable Outcome, the 4% yield + 5% dividend growth portfolio, a few quotes from //The Strategic Dividend Investor// by Daniel Peris a superb book on dividend growth investing ♣ page 2 has a big table showing 22 stocks I've purchased since 1987 with their buy price and gain since purchase, the start and current dividend and yield on cost (current dividend / buy price), dividend growth and price growth compared (CNR dividend up 877%, price up 785%) on each and also eight reflections on the purchases ♣ page 3 is my list of common stocks with three columns on yield, three on price plus dividend growth data and normalized p/e, along with comment and the cheapest five stocks for cost of $1 in dividends. ♣ page 4 current comment (higher yields mean more retirement income on our next purchase), some dividend growth data from the 1970s, a summary of my July 2011 writings and two yield charts (yield of the list and a bank going back to 2000). | ||
+ | * For a $10 bill (cheques are not legal tender), you can obtain a copy of our August 2011 Connolly Report from our daughter: | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ==== **June 30th Anniversary Issue** ==== | ||
+ | ♣ Front page: After 30 years, a summary of my three precepts in three sentences. Thoughts on waiting for better valuations by Klarman, Chin and Coxe. A two-bar chart showing ' | ||
+ | * For a $10 bill (cheques are not legal tender), you can obtain a copy of our June 2011 Connolly Report from our daughter: | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== April 2011 Vol XXXI #2 ==== | ||
+ | ♣ Page 1: What to do (essentially wait), and what not to do, being as the market is up over 100% in the last two years. Thoughts from Watsa, Maida, Montier, Easterling, Smithers, Klarman, Russell and John Burr Williams in 1938. C.A.P.E. of S&P ♣ Page 2 is packed with a summary of February, March and April ' | ||
+ | * For a $10 bill (cheques are not legal tender), you can obtain a copy of our April 2011 report and our February 2011, from: | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== February 2011 Vol XXXI #1 ==== | ||
+ | ♣ Page 1) "Have a Risky Bias" thoughts about the overvalued market - long-term measures of the market: Grantham, Katsenelson (Sideways Markets), Buttonwood, Easterling' | ||
+ | |||
+ | * For a $10 bill (cheques are not legal tender), you can obtain a copy of our February 2011 report, from: | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ==== December 2010 Vol XXX #6 ==== | ||
+ | ♣ Page 1) Year-end thoughts on how to keep the income flowing, the expensive market, waiting is hard, comments lines on BCE ♣ 2) eight topics from inside dividendgrowth.ca: | ||
+ | ♣ 4) final renewal notice - comments and comparison on both Manulife and BCE - two yield charts from 2000: ENB (dividend from .635 to $1.96) and BCE. BCE's yield chart is unique. It shows the very low yield of the tech bubble, back to normal, no yield during the Teachers' | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | * For a $10 bill (cheques are not legal tender), you can obtain a copy of our December 2010 report, our full 2010 dividend data summary and a page of current comment, from: | ||
+ | |||
+ | Louise Connolly, | ||
+ | |||
+ | 607 - 185 Ontario Street | ||
+ | |||
+ | Kingston ON K7L 2Y7 | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== October 2010 Vol XXX #5 pages 705 - 708 ==== | ||
+ | ♣ Page 1 Returns Going Forward will be lower; What to do now with money? estimating return: Y + DG ♣ Page 2 Manulife comment; After five years 80% of return comes from yield and dividend growth, 20% from price chanrge. What's coming next? " | ||
+ | |||
+ | For a $10 bill (cheques are not legal tender), you can obtain a copy of our October 2010 report, including a page of current writing, from: | ||
+ | |||
+ | Louise Connolly, | ||
+ | |||
+ | 607 - 185 Ontario Street | ||
+ | |||
+ | Kingston ON K7L 2Y7 | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== August 2010 Volume XXX #4 ==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | ♣ Page 1: range-bound market; Security Analysis - the book; dividends in declining markets - a study; five asset allocation myths ♣ Page 2 - Is Emera value priced? an analysis ♣ Page 3 has the list with a new column: 10 year trailing p/e ratio and comment on it and other matters ♣ Page four - four yield charts and comment eg: Value Line on the Canadian banks ♣ Page 5 - an extra page in August with ten year earnings for the stocks in order of trailing 10-year p/e, and on the back side, ♣ Page 6 Five ways to invest if you are not into forecasting from the little Book of Behavioural Investing by James Montier. It's a great little book. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * For a $10 bill (cheques are not legal tender), you can obtain a copy of our August 2010 report, including the extra pages, from: | ||
+ | |||
+ | Louise Connolly, | ||
+ | |||
+ | 607 - 185 Ontario Street | ||
+ | |||
+ | Kingston ON K7L 2Y7 | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ==== June 2010 Volume XXX #3 ==== | ||
+ | Waiting. ♣ Page 1 three step method for low p/e and dividend yield investing, low yield common and the new normal, gerald M. Loeb's 1935 book - a crash, a rally and then the crash ♣ Page 2 has 'the example' | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ==== April 2010 Volume XXX #2 ==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Page 1 - Some ideas on whether to hold, wait or buy now. It boils down to this: long term returns are closely correlated with the valuation of the market upon entry; using dividend yields as a valuation metric...a recent study. ♣ Page 2 - "focus on risk aversion rather than maximizing immediate return" | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== February 2010 **VOLUME XXX** ==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | Page 1 - "seven lean years"; | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ==== December 2009 ==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Page 1. " | ||
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+ | ==== October 2009 ==== | ||
+ | : ' | ||
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+ | ==== August 29th ==== | ||
+ | Report: ' | ||
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+ | **June 2009** **1.** It's a bear market rally...be cautious was my headline; some thoughts. A few more thoughts on stock price stability, how did our stocks fair from the 2007-2008 high to the recent low compared to ones with a lower price stability rating **2.** 9% cagr from stocks in our list over the last decade - a list of our stocks, their total return from 1998 to 2008 with the amount of the return generated by dividends: average 63% - thoughts on buying now **3.** Our list with two new columns: 10 year dividend growth beside the 5 year dividend growth and 2009 dividend growth, and recent high yield numbers - including comment on this data and the list - CIBC is on top - three more dividend increases **4.** More on the concept of yield plus dividend growth as a way of estimating future returns - Jim Rogers definition of diversification: | ||
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+ | **April 2009** 1. Will our dividends hold? Some thoughts and two dividend examples from the 1930s + Comments from Ian Gordon and Wm Macdonald ("We are at a moment in history." | ||
+ | Page 2) Valuation - adding | ||
+ | Page 3) the list with updated data for Graham values (aver of +20) and five year gains (aver 4.6% (vs TSX of -1.2%...no negative yield differences. Paragraph on life insurance stocks. Page 4 lists five links to this site with a sentence of comment and two book review links; plus my cost of $1 in dividends chart (under $20 still) and BMO yield chart back to 1985. | ||
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+ | **February 2009** 1) Nibble yet or wait? (We have knockdown prices for financial stocks...but ) or WAIT? Some thoughts. plus: book value as an indicator, recovery times, | ||
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+ | **December 2008** issue mailed on January 7 2009 (We were in France in December) | ||
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+ | 1. Valuation is everything. " | ||
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+ | 2. A series of ideas, from various sources, about what's going on. For instance, what happened in the fall of 2008 might make investors cautious. This is understandable, | ||
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+ | 3.Our list with BCE in it for the last time. Revised dividend growth data to end of 2008: one year and five year. Four increases so far in 2009. Interestingly, | ||
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+ | 4. Four yield charts including the chart of the yield of the list and the new one I'm adding to the list to replace BCE. Some thoughts on the question: Do we buy now? | ||
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+ | **October 2008** - mailed on October 22 from Kingston | ||
+ | Front page: fifteen positive ideas on various topics | ||
+ | Page 2. Comparison table: our list prices down 17.7% in the last year versus various indexes eg: DJIA minus - 27 | ||
+ | Professionals did not do better in the last year. Comments on diversification and the state of the market generally | ||
+ | The market may be down (from what?), but my own RRSP value is up (from what? | ||
+ | 3. Our list of dividend growth stocks with quite different observations. For instance, the average of the G%D column is a positive 1, six stocks have single digit P/Es. Two more 2008 dividend increases. Average 2008 dividend growth now 9.9% When was the last time you received at 10% raise? Bond income is fixed. Ours isn't. | ||
+ | 4. Projected dividend growth; four yield charts: a bank, a food retailer, a life company and the yield of the list chart; renewal notice for 2009. | ||
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+ | August 2008 - mailed on August 13 from Kingston | ||
+ | Page 1. 1968 Income $4,815 *range-bound market* 1983 Income $31,398 is my headline. An example of how a Canadian dividend growth investor who retired in 1967 did in the last range-bound market. I included data on the TSE 300 over the period 1968 to 1982 for comparison. The market, in essence, went no where...the dividend investor did well. | ||
+ | 2 'When to Buy' is my title for page two. Some ideas from different sources. The price you pay when you buy the stock determines your future return. | ||
+ | Four yield charts: a bank, a low yield food retailer, a life company and a utility near the bottom of the list. | ||
+ | 3. The list includes columns for 2008 dividend growth and five year average dividend growth. The list is in order of yield difference. Three in the top five are not banks. Average of list 3.47%. Under the list: ten recent dividend increases, some observations on the list and recent quotations about the market from four important investors. | ||
+ | 4. Some ideas on replacing BCE when the time comes...BCE is finally back over $40. | ||
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+ | **June 2008** - mailed on June 11th from Toronto - | ||
+ | Page One : Dividends shine (like 90% of the return, folks) in range-bound markets, and there is P/E expansion too with value-priced common stocks according to two sets of data from a book by V. Katsenelson on //Active Value Investing// (get an idea of what the book is like at www.activevalueinvesting.com | ||
+ | Also on page one, half a page on Banks stocks and a couple of sentences from George Soros "...be concerned with wealth preservation" | ||
+ | 2. FLIGHTS my acronym for: fees, liquidity, income, growth, health, taxation, security: a brief comment about doing a FLIGHTS test before you invest. | ||
+ | 10 portfolio recommendations; | ||
+ | comments on the four yield charts: average 'yield of the list', average Graham data values over the last three years, yields of three life companies and a financial holding company' | ||
+ | 3. The list in order of average yield difference with the usual columns of data on each stock, dividend increases since last issue, and fifteen comments on the list | ||
+ | 4. Which common stocks of ours, and a few others, have the best price stability | ||
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+ | **April 2008** - to be mailed Thursday April 17 - | ||
+ | Page One: three topics 1. A long transition period upon us - some thoughts. Be glad we don't own mutual funds or that we are into indexing: in April of 1999 the S&P 500 was at 1362. Now it's at 1332: a range bound market. More on this next issue. | ||
+ | • dividend growth data on 12 stocks from my April 1988 report...twenty years ago - how dividends held up during this period - there was some dividend growth and two reductions. These sixteen stocks were in my list twenty years ago in April of 1988. They are no longer in the list. They are in order of 10 year dividend growth from 1977 to 1988: Pacific Northern Gas, Alberta Natural Gas, Maritime Electric (PEI - now in Fortis), Noverco (Gaz), Intercity Gas, Newtel (NFLD), inflation at 7.4% per annum, MT&T (now BA.UN), Island Tel, Quebec Tel, B.C. Tel (Telus perhaps now), Inland Nat. Gas, Nova, Bruncor, Consumers Gas, Union Ent. (Gas), TransMountain. | ||
+ | • Value Line comments on the Canadian banks and their expected dividend growth figures and projections on dividend growth from Scotia McLeod.too. | ||
+ | 2. Declining p/e ratios and how they affect returns + comments on commodities and gold. The answer to the test question on this page is 6...you subtract the contracting P/E ratio. I used to teach this stuff, remember | ||
+ | 3. Revised Graham data for all our stocks. Example: With the revision, Power' | ||
+ | I show eight dividend increases this issue, one from our list and seven others, one at 100%. | ||
+ | Page 4 - Investment havens in a time of panic + a stock which has held up well in this turmoil | ||
+ | and two long term yield charts: a bank and an insurance company. I sorry. I forgot to increase the size of the text font in the charts. The BMO chart is from 1985, The GWO chart from 1992. | ||
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+ | **February 2008** - was mailed Thursday February 21 - | ||
+ | 1. Comments by Buffett*, Soros, Montier, Mauldin, Grantham, Jarislowsky and Gross about what's going on... | ||
+ | 2. POINTS: Suppose in 2002, you sorted our stocks seven different ways (yield, yield difference, dividend growth rate, G%D etc.) and assigned three points for the stocks in the top quartile, two for the next quartile down, one for the next and none for the bottom quartile, then added up the points, would the stock with the highest number of points in 2002 turn out to have been the best buy (highest capital appreciation) five years later? The most interesting results are on page two, along with current list in order of quartile points too. The tops point getters are not all banks...a couple of low yielders are in there too. | ||
+ | 3. Our list with updated data for dividend growth over five years and dividend growth so far this year (eight changes) and the revised G%D for the banks. I also have revisions for the five year price gain versus five year dividend growth columns...big changes here, of course. Comments on changes to the list: IGM , for instance, has moved up because of mutual funds redemptions. Can you imagine people selling when prices go down. Of course, unlike us, fund owners have nothing to hold up the value of their stocks, so maybe they are, well, I better not say it in my outlound voice... | ||
+ | Yield + 5 year dividend growth is my extra column this time. Do you believe this is our total return? The average of the column is 18%. If you sort on this column, the top two are not banks, notice, and the bottom stocks are quite similar to the bottom ones on our usual sort on difference in yield. | ||
+ | 4. I'm still working on page four: thoughts on nibbling, the yield charts, which stock have held up and which have bent are listed. There are four yield charts with comments. One yield chart is from a stock at the bottom of our list: one can easily see why it, and the others there, are not good buys. A 'yield of our list' chart will be there too along with a bank yield chart and that of my recent purchase. | ||
+ | * I've been nibbling too... the ROB headline that he was sitting on his wallet was wrong. | ||
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+ | + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + | ||
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+ | **December 2007** | ||
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+ | 1. Two yield charts, one is the yield of our list...most interesting at 3.15% | ||
+ | My headline changed three times: Pop Goes the Credit Bubble, to The Great Unwinding has Begun, to finally: Be Disciplined. Be very Cautious. Savour Cash. You get the drift. There' | ||
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+ | 2. Some thoughts about buying ' | ||
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+ | 3. The list and some current comments: the banks; average dividend growth data... | ||
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+ | 4. Richard Russell' | ||
+ | Final renewal reminder for 2008. __I do not send renewal notices__, remember. | ||
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+ | **October 12 2007** | ||
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+ | 1. A half page each about two studies on dividend stocks. | ||
+ | A) Stocks which do not pay dividends flounder in storms based on David Stanley' | ||
+ | B) Valuation at the time of purchase matters a lot. 11% was the real average return for stocks purchased when the yield was in the high range versus 4% forward average annual real return for those stocks in the expensive quintile. MESSAGE: Don't buy expensive [popular] stocks: use valuation measures like yield and P/E. | ||
+ | Detail on second study at http:// | ||
+ | 2.Some comments on BCE, Leon's and a few other stocks. Two yield charts...both banks well above their average yield...the highest yield since 2000, actually. I have found, over the years, that yield valuation signals work. | ||
+ | 3. The list with some comments and a new column for 'price to sales' ratio - this issue only | ||
+ | 4. The recent price stability of our dividend stocks, with a table showing August low price and current price | ||
+ | To weather storms, the solution for me is not diviversification, | ||
+ | Are corporations tangible values? | ||
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+ | **August 10 2007** | ||
+ | 1. More Canadian data on how well Canadian dividend growth stocks do...better than the Yale endowment fund, it seems. | ||
+ | A few comments on Capital Ideas Evolving...Peter L. Bernstein' | ||
+ | "A stock dividend is something tangible, it's not an earnings projection..." | ||
+ | two yield graphs of banks - neither has had a higher yield since 2000 | ||
+ | 2. P/E contraction since 2000 - it's effect on the price of a dividend growth stock...a short paper | ||
+ | 3. The list and some comments on it - eight more dividend increase announcements. | ||
+ | #1 in the list this time was #2 last time; #5 last time is now #3 all banks. The other banks are much further down the list. Positions four, five and six are life insurance companies. | ||
+ | The average dividend growth of stocks in our list in 2007 is 12.2%. How long will it take your capital to double at that rate? | ||
+ | 4. A summary of a 42 page paper by my neighbour Dr. Peter Kirkham, titled: Are life insurance stocks good investments? | ||
+ | two year average G%D data for 10 stocks near the top of our list; a comment on BCE and a market comment by Richard Russell. | ||
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+ | **June 8 2007** | ||
+ | 1. Average annual return of Canadian dividend growth stocks in the last decade: a)- 2.3%, b) 14.6%, c) 19.8%, d) 22.2%. | ||
+ | two yield charts of stocks near the top of the list - one a bank, one a life company - both have had recent dividend increases and one has not had a higher yield since 2000 | ||
+ | 2. A FIRST for the Connolly Report - chart of Power' | ||
+ | 3. Our list of common stocks in order of difference from their own yield average - nine dividend increases this issue - comment on BCEas well as a couple of stocks both at the top and the bottom of the list - two high yield banks briefly compared | ||
+ | 4. Dividend increase announcements - some thoughts and calculations - one specific example - "Why don't I own this?" was my proof reader' | ||
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+ | April 2007 - I'll try to remember to add this soon and that of February 2007 |