DividendGrowth.ca

about_us

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2026-01-14T14:26:01+00:00

[Logo] The Connolly Report (about dividend growth common stocks) has been published since 1981 by Thomas. P. Connolly, B.Com ('64). The ideas about the strategy are on-line now inside dividendgrowth.ca It is blog of a few pages a month plus links, special one page White Paper summaries now and then, and a lot of dividend growth data. The entire Graham data and explanations mentioned in Rob Carrick's July 2020 column is there too. This blog will continue into 2024 and hopefully beyond. Access …

advisers_err

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2024-06-11T20:22:07+00:00

Advisor Errors Every weekend there is a new financial plan/financial facelift in the press. The planning portion is usually fine; the investing part is maladroit. The so-called experts are infected by modern portfolio theory. Here are some examples.

annuities

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2008-10-16T16:46:20+00:00

Arguments Against Annuities - Connolly Report p 210 February 1990 For those who are being pestered by annuity agents, here are nineteen arguments designed to cool the eloquence of the most persuasive professionals. I have organized the ideas into a quasi-dialogue and substantiated many points with facts. At the same time, I tried to incorporate the many advantages of RRIFS. The list of twenty RRIF advantages in my August 1986 issue (page 126) is still valid.

asset_allocation_on_retirement

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2008-10-16T16:46:20+00:00

Asset Allocation on Retirement from Connolly Report February 2000 “[T]hose of us who lived with the market during the 1966-1982 period can attest that there have been long stretches when equities returned only the dividend; there were no capital gains.

bear_market_investing

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2009-06-18T23:48:00+00:00

BEAR MARKET INVESTING - from Connolly Report Oct 1998 p.419 with slight revisions To brush up on bear market trading tactics, I am re-reading Andrew Sarlos' Fear, Greed and the End of the Rainbow (1997, Key Porter Books)...especially pages 16-17, 106-108, 145, 152 and sadly, Mr. Sarlos' last page 182. Here, from page 145, is Andrew Sarlos' rule #2

bonds

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2010-12-08T13:48:12+00:00

BONDS “the income from bonds erodes over time and, if you spend all the income from a bond, you consume capital” James Garland, Connolly Report October 1996 from a Forbes magazine column in June 17 1996 issue. Garland does good work. Google him

bull_a_history_of_the_boom

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2009-03-30T19:33:34+00:00

Bull: A Histroy of the Boom Bull! A History of the Boom by Maggie Mahar, 2003 $43 Cdn 490 pages Harper Business I don't usually like books written by journalists, but Bull! was somewhat different. And Bull! was recommended by none other than Warren Buffet in his 2003 letter to shareholders. The author and journalist, Maggie Mahar, talked to the right people: Among them were: Richard Russell, James Grant, Gail Dudack, Bill Gross, Jeremy Grantham, Martin Barnes, Robert Shiller. When ever you find…

buybacks

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2012-01-12T12:55:03+00:00

BUYBACKS * Buybacks are touted as “returning cash to shareholders”. That's tosh! You can't get your cash from a buyback unless you sell your shares. Buybacks favour those who would sell their shares. Dividends go to those who wish to remain as shareholders. I'd rather receive a dividend than sell off 4% of my shares every year.

chaff

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2009-02-26T10:58:55+00:00

chaff These ideas did not fit into my February 2009 report. (I call it chaff. Chaff used to stick to me like glue while blowing wheat up into the grainery on a hot August day on the farm near Petrolia Ontario about the time oil was discovered at LeDuc.)

controlling_risk

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2008-10-16T16:46:21+00:00

Risk in an Era of Confidence: Whenever I find something written by John Bogle, the grizzled veteran of 50 years in the business and founder of The Vangard Group, I pay attention. His speech to the New England Pension Consultants' Client Conference in Boston on April 6th 2000 was sensational.

dgdpg2013

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2013-03-18T16:05:20+00:00

disclaimer

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2008-10-16T16:46:21+00:00

The information and opinions on this site must not be considered investment advice. The information is intended to be for educational purposes. I taught this material for 32 years. I'm an educator: I am not an investment advisor...never was, never would be. No particular security or investment product is recommended or has ever been recommended. Opinions can change without notice. Opinions offered here can never be a substitution for independent analysis and due diligence. This site may contain …

diversification

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2012-04-26T13:42:49+00:00

DIVERSIFICATION This page is an effort in progress . . . “The belief that diversification into alternative assets could prevent investors losing money in bear markets has proved false.” Economist, December 6 2008. TC: Notice the date...after the Fall of 2008 'excitement'.

dividend_growth_strategy

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2022-02-24T20:11:33+00:00

The Dividend Growth Strategy It’s the future cash flow dividend growth investors are interested in. We want our cash flow to be sound and growing. And we have discovered that as the dividend grows, the price grows also. Charles Ellis put it this way in a 1987 Forbes column: “You could invest the portfolio and get a 4% dividend return. That dividend could reasonably be expected to grow at 6% . . . the principal presumable would also appreciate at 6%.” In essence, this is what I do. (What’s Ellis…

dividends_tidbits

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2011-04-15T19:04:09+00:00

Dividends Tidbits * $736 billion in dividends - In 2007, according to The Economist (March 7 2009 p.77 'Slash and burn' a great column on dividend reductions)“$736 billion of dividend paid globally by quoted firms in 2007”. Financial companies contributed about a third of these dividends.

drips

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2015-09-11T18:13:22+00:00

DRIPS - dividend re-investment plans For two good reasons which I'll get to in a minute, I do not use them, but a case can be made, in some circumstances, for dividend investment plans. It's a personal decision. Many are attracted to DRIPs, for instance, because it saves on brokerage commissions. As I trade infrequently and on the internet at minimal cost, this argument does not sway me. Compared to the annual MER on mutual funds, commissions on individual stock buy/sell orders are a pittance.

dump_your_funds

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2008-10-16T16:46:22+00:00

Dump Your Funds In July 2007 (just as the market was peaking...was he ever lucky), a new friend asked me to look at his portfolio. Except for some shares of Bank of Nova Scotia, it was all put into mutual funds by his financial planner. Funds generate ongoing fees for the advisor, stocks don't. As a result, financial planners put your money into mutual funds. Wouldn't you, if you were a financial planner? Here are some comments I wrote out for him. He's about 40.

el

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2021-08-26T19:51:07+00:00

Guelph seminar May 28 2015 - Food Sciences Building at the university 7:30 p.m. * Sorry. This chart is crooked and I forgot to pass this around, but this CNR yield chart back to 1999 shows that as the dividend rises (hand-writtne across the bottom) the yield essentially stays the same. So, the price must be rising too. And it did.

evidence_it_works

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2014-12-17T16:59:54+00:00

Evidence Dividend Growth Investing Works First you have to know about dividend growth investing and understand how dividend growth builds wealth. Second you have to believe it works. I hope this page helps. Third you have to resist the temptation of 'story' stocks, to control your behaviour and finally you need the patience to execute the strategy (to wait for the value buy price, and then wait for the dividends to grow). Nothing spectular will happen in the short term. Good luck.

external_links

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2009-09-03T19:45:00+00:00

h1. External Links I use these links from away. * Globe Investor * (Type ca: in front of your ticker symbol. Example ca:pow) * Jarislowsky Fraser - Read their quarterly outlook. * My first cousin is in Hebron, Palestine * Some material is available without a subscription.

falling_market

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2012-06-12T20:55:12+00:00

Falling Market If the market is really falling and you are a bit scared, reading these comments might help: * If prices are falling then yields are rising and your next purchase will provide more retirement income. * “a dividend-focused portfolio delivers a high share of its total return as a cash payment, which is not subject to timing or value determination

february_2009

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2009-05-11T00:48:47+00:00

February 2009 Manulife Financial Corp has lost its triple AAA credit rating. MFC had its credit rating downgraded slightly to AA - by S&P on February 24 2009. Standard and Poors said the outlook for Manulife was “stable”. According to Rob Carrick, writing in the Report on Business on February 24 2009 'Advisers talk tough on fund fees'

financial_planners

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2010-02-25T17:42:45+00:00

Financial Planners “Everyone is a predator of the investor” Stephen Jarislowsky, Feb 11 2010 Globe Investor * “Mutual fund salespeople are often stock brokers who turned to selling mutual funds because their competitively low commissions didn't allow them to make a living selling just stocks. And financial advisors are only too often just mutual fund and insurance salespeople in disguise.

first_quarter_2010

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2010-04-10T10:03:25+00:00

First Quarter 2010 DIVIDENDS MATTER: From December 1969 to December 2009, the compound total return with re-invested dividends for Canadian stocks was 5,285%. Not counting dividends, measuring stock-price gains alone, the gain over the same period was 1,481% (according to S&P in Barron's of March 22 2010). ♣ 5,285 vs 1,481 is right some significant? What's your conclusion? These numbers make me feel secure in my strategy: I buy good dividend paying stocks and do not trade very much? Dividends …

first_quarter_2011

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2011-03-21T11:30:56+00:00

First Quarter 2011 “My view tends to be that you look at long-term measures [of the market] (like the cyclically-adjusted [p/e] ratio or the dividend yield) and figure out that when valuations are high, future returns are likely to be low.” The Economist, Buttonwood's blog of January 28 2011. ♣ TC: I've used dividend yield to measure a stock's valuation for about 30 years now. More recently I started using C.A.P.E. too (cyclically adjusted [earnings over ten years] price to earning ratio). T…

first_quarter_2012

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2012-04-09T17:08:45+00:00

First quarter 2012 * 84% - If you are still in mutual funds, here are two things to consider. First, in 2011, 84% of active money managers did not beat their benchmarks. Professionals don't do better. Second, the market as a whole is expensive (Shiller's p/e is 22.1). Prices might go higher. Chances are greater, though, it will go much lower. Maybe you should get out of mutual funds now. Then wait a while for better prices. Then buy dividend stocks which actually produce real income as in the…

first_quarter_2013

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2013-02-24T14:00:55+00:00

First Quarter 2013 How important are dividends. Well, according to Dimson, Marsh and Staunton at the London Business School, real return on U.S. equities over the past 113 years was 6.3%¹ a year. Of this 2.0% was capital appreciation. So, most of the return was dividend related, yield and dividend growth. Only 2% was gain. Think on that. Do you own mutual funds or ETFs or stocks that do not pay dividends? Why? What are you hoping for? Do they pay much income? Most likely not. So, to finance you…

first_quarter_2014

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2014-02-21T16:54:44+00:00

First Quarter 2014 In the long run, return is your dividend yield + dividend growth + or - a valuation factor. I talk about this on the front page of my February 2014 Connolly Report. Your problem is two fold. First, you don't believe the equation in the first sentence. Most of the gains, you think, come from capital appreciation. In the long run, that's not the case. It's dividends growing on you initial yield that build wealth. Second, you do not see the results of dividend growth building on…

first_quarter_2015

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2015-04-18T13:16:23+00:00

First Quarter 2015 Bonds are not as safe as folks think 1. Bonds held in a fund or ETF lose their guarantee of money back (the maturity date disappears in a fund). 2. Interest rates are historically low: when they eventually rise again, the bond's price will fall. 3. Bonds fluctuate in prices just like stocks. 4. Bonds only provide a fixed income. TC: I do not buy bonds, never have, never will. If you understand the essence of dividend growth, you'll know why.

first_quarter_2016

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2016-04-03T16:28:47+00:00

First Quarter 2016 The Connolly Report pretty well follows the investment strategies used by John Maynard Keynes when he ran the Chest Fund at Oxford in the 1920s. The front page of the March 2016 Connolly Report outlines Mr Keynes' three basic strategies (from 1938). I reject Modern Portfolio Theory and follow the old masters (Graham, A. Bernhard, J Burr Williams, G. Loeb

first_quarter_2017

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2017-06-06T13:46:51+00:00

First Quarter 2017 (with thoughts added on June 5th) “Indexing works great. Until it doesn't”. These sentences are from an ad by Cumberland Wealth Management in The Economist. The bull market is long in the tooth. What do you do if your own an index ETF or fund? Ride it down as you rode it up? Remember that the S&P 500 was essentially flat between 1999 and 2009

for_the_record

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2009-11-23T20:55:16+00:00

h1. FOR THE RECORD When did you first realize that the financial crisis was very serious? Here's what I was saying and when: “A prolonged, difficult period of transition is upon us.” Connolly Report front page headline of April 2008 Page 2 April 2008 issue headline:PE Ratios are Declining

fourth_quarter_2010

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2010-12-20T10:47:05+00:00

=== Fourth Quarter 2010 === Connolly Report ideas Here's what dividend growth investing is all about. Our son bought some BCE in August 2009 for $25.09 per share. The dividend is now $1.97 per. His yield is 1.97 / 25.09 = 7.85%. That 7.8% includes the gains in the dividend since he bought the shares. It does not include the gain in price (currently $35.) He's up $10 per share and he's getting 7.8% on his money now. That $10 is his margin of safety. The stock can fall $10 and he's still breaki…

fourth_quarter_2011

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2011-12-30T15:53:00+00:00

Fourth Quarter 2011 * Ours did better. 8.75% was the average annual return of the best Canadian mutual fund over the last ten years (October 2011 Connolly Report p.729). Is that good for the best fund? I was curious to see if the common stocks I follow (never preferred) had greater dividend growth than 8.75% a year over the last decade. Eighteen of the 23 stocks I follow did do better. And dividend growth drives price growth *. We won. The professionals who ran the fund with the best returns …

fourth_quarter_2012

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2012-12-12T02:18:24+00:00

I started a seminar last week by writing these dividend numbers on the board. The dividends begin in 1995 and are from from a well know company which makes drinks, generally, we should not drink: 44¢, 50¢, 56¢, 60¢, 64¢, 68¢ (in 2000), 72¢, 80¢, 88¢, $1.00, $1.12, $1.24, $1.36, $1.52, $1.64, $1.76, $1.88, $2.04. Why would you want anything else but a growing income? Why would you buy a bond which has fixed income. Does the fluctuating price of the stock really matter if it is tossing out income …

fourth_quarter_2013

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2013-12-22T18:25:16+00:00

Fourth Quarter 2013 Why I'm a 100% dividend growth fan (no bonds or funds)? Over longer periods, dividend yield and dividend growth provide most of the return. Over five years, for instance, since 1871 in the U.S. market, almost 80% of return was generated by yield and dividend growth. Eighty percent. GMO Aug 2010 James Montier's 'A Man from a Different Time'.

fourth_quarter_2014

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2015-04-05T21:12:39+00:00

You must construct an individual portfolio full of dividend growth common stocks to build wealth. Funds and ETFs will not do it. Connolly Report Vol. XXXIV No.6 Dec 2014 page 808 ♦ FIVE PERCENT MORE A YEAR is possible by constructing an individual dividend growth stock portfolio ourselves rather than going the mutual fund route. Five percent more a year is a whole lot more

fourth_quarter_2015

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2016-03-05T14:03:57+00:00

Fourth Quarter 2015 * What does the market value in most cases depend upon? (answer below on this page) • The main reason dividend growth investors run our own income 'fund' is because we can perform much better: ♣ We can concentrate on superior dividend growers - funds over diversify with hundreds of stocks, a lot more losers. ♣ In aggregate our income rises each year - most funds do not increase distributions annually. ♣ Dividend growth investors pass all the income along to ourselves - so…

fourth_quarter_2016

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2017-03-24T19:43:20+00:00

Fourth Quarter 2016 ETFs and income funds spoil their returns by adding a lot of lower quality, plain-vanilla dividend stocks. Our goal is growth of the spending stream. Yield alone does not move the needle Can you distinguish between 'current' (or high) yielders and dividend growth stocks? The difference is hugely important. If you can differentiate, and act on that knowledge, you will have a financially comfortable retirement: tens of thousands of extra dollars easily. Most likely you thin…

fourth_quarter_2017

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2017-10-21T11:45:46+00:00

Fourth Quarter 2017 * “How dividend growth can boost a stock's price” by Rob Carrick, RoB October 18 2017 page 11 Inside this site are the five spreadsheets delving into data about the 24 stocks the Connolly Report has followed since 2008. Other dividend growth data goes back to 1977. We compute average dividend growth per year on the six stalwarts over forty years

france

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2014-04-26T15:31:23+00:00

France From CDG you can now get trains going in virtually all directions. We took the TGV out to Rennes in Brittany (bit more than two hours $100 each, roughly). Don't forget to validate your ticket a few minutes before the train arrives in the little yellow box and notice your car number to be near the proper place on the platform. The TGV is only in the station for a jiff and track number (voie) is shown only shortly before it arrives on the big board. ♣ In Rennes, there are a number of decen…

fund-based_income_plans

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2010-11-26T17:13:13+00:00

fund-based_income_plans “The income plan” was the headline in a special, full page, information ‘advertisement' in the Globe and Mail of June 17, 2009. The ad seemed to have been sponsored by, and probably was paid for by, Standard Life. I was curious to see how they were going to get income from a mutual or segregated fund, so I read the entire page. Our three week old grandson, beside me, was not yet stirring. Here are some thoughts I jotted down in the margins of the page. I'll compare the i…

funds-no_two

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2012-03-02T22:36:46+00:00

More reasons why I refuse to be sold mutual funds (funds-no two) 3. I choose not to deal with an outfit which deducts an annual fee but does not have the gumption to show subtraction of the fee on statements. Seven out of ten people who own funds do not even realize they are paying hundreds of dollars a year in recurring annual (MER) fees. 4. With so many funds, it's easier to pick a good stock than a mutual fund. 5. Managers of funds do not really care about taxes because the burden to pay fal…

funds_no

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2009-12-02T14:01:19+00:00

Why I refuse to be sold mutual funds: * professional_management : Most managers do not beat the market. * Fees are high. Here's one example from John Heinzl's September 2 2009 column in the Report on Business 'Funds fees - the charges that keep on taking': $100,000 invested at 8% annually would generate a profit of $584,847.52 after 25 years. But an investor who paid just 2.5 per cent in fees annually (total fee $131,157.90), would only end up with $272,404.80. The lost return potential is…

hamlet_s_retirement

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2011-09-23T15:30:00+00:00

When Hamlet Retires (with apologies to W.S.) * To seek income growth, or remain with fixed, * That is the question. * Whether 'tis better to suffer * The ravages of inflation on fixed, * Or to pocket the benefits of income growth * And risk a bit of fluctuation?

home

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2026-03-14T21:42:54+00:00

DividendGrowth.ca The Connolly Report (since 1981) is no longer printed. It's a blog for subscribers inside this site. The blog is one or two pages a month with scores of ideas, links, yield and dividend data (going back decades) about dividend growth investing. Summaries of printed reports over the last decade (up to December 2018) are inside too.

index_funds

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2010-12-30T19:35:16+00:00

Index Funds People put money into index funds partly because indexes beat most active managers. Nothing is going to change that because, collectively, active managers hold essentially the same assets as the indexes. So collectively, their returns have to be the same, minus costs, which are larger`; Rob Arnott Barron`s December 2008

investing_an_inheritance

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2008-10-16T16:46:22+00:00

Investing an Inheritance © Connolly Report April 2000 p.454 Every now and then you find another one - an article about how to invest an inheritance or some other type of windfall. I glance at such columns to see if they contain any fresh ideas: few do. The most recent article I reviewed was in the February 18 2000 issue of Investor's Digest. I read this column more carefully because the column was written by a certified financial analyst (CFA). The subject of the column was age 50. She inherite…

investment_books

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2018-12-30T19:10:41+00:00

Investment Books The Investment Zoo by Stephen Jarislowsky - the best of the lot...by far. That it is not recommended by brokers speaks volumes. And even better, The Investment Zoo is Canadian. Unfortunately, The Investment Zoo is out of print. Eventually, I'll get some other book reviews moved here. The newer book reviews will be inside, Mr Market Miscalculates by James Grant, for instance.

investment_topics

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2015-09-11T10:46:55+00:00

h1. Investment Topics * Yield + Dividend Growth is what is added to estimate return * YOC_BNS - one PDF page - yield on cost, an example of dividend growth from 1990 to 2009 * Yield on Cost is the indicated dividend divided by the per share purchase price. * Falling Market * Valuation - When is a stock

ipos

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2012-05-29T00:19:34+00:00

IPO - Inital Public Offerings - new issues - just don't do it Quite simply, I do not buy IPOs because all these people, whose judgement I respect, say not to buy new issues. Tom Connolly “Typically, you should avoid new issues...” Stephen Jarislowsky's The Investment Zoo p.84 Also read the Zoo page 78.

islay

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2012-01-23T20:46:06+00:00

Islay Islay, the southern most island in the Inner Hebrides, was terrific in late January-early February 2011. Patrick, our son, and I especially liked touring Islay on the local bus, rather than renting a car, as we had more than one sample at each distillery. Because Patrick and I were the only folks on these whisky tours, and they knew we were not driving, we had four or five wee drams at most distilleries. Our favourite distillery tour was Laphroaig (they still do floor malting), closely fo…

john_neff_on_investing

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2008-10-16T16:46:23+00:00

John Neff on Investing - Wiley & Sons, 1999 John Neff has been one of my investment hero for decades. He began running the Windsor fund about the time I received my Commerce degree...in the mid 1960s. Neff has been retired for some years now but is still quoted from time to time in the financial press. This book is written by John Neff and contains many pearls of wisdom. I'd place this book in the my top ten along with Loeb's Battle for Investment Survival and the Intelligent Investor.

julia

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2009-06-18T16:14:30+00:00

letter_to_shareholders

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2009-05-14T12:58:04+00:00

Letter to Shareholders by Warren Buffett === Warren Buffett's 2009 Letter to Shareholders pdf, all from page 5: * “We like buying underpriced securities…” * “When investing, pessimism is your friend, euphoria, the enemy.”

life_cycle_funds

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2009-03-29T15:14:26+00:00

Don't get me started on life-cycle funds...the newest product being touted by the money industry...a fund of funds which matures, they say, on an important date in your life. The average American mutual fund holds 160 stocks. Why would you want a fund of funds, says five times 160 = possibly 800 stocks? Talk about over-diversification! • Life-cycle funds are fatally flawed. They recommend that you switch to more bonds, with their fixed income, as you approach retirement¹. Retirement could last a…

market_high

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2011-03-27T11:07:29+00:00

Market High “Our approach has always been to find compelling bargains. We are never fully invested if there is nothing great to do.” Seth Klarman, Financial Analysts Journal * March 17 2011 Report on Business: “Equities in Canada have, I think, gone to levels that are not attractive today, and could be in for a serious correction.” Vito Maida

mentions

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2011-11-27T16:23:32+00:00

Mentions: “The financial media are starved for content and so will give a platform to anyone.” Yes, You Can Time the Market p.160 This book did not impress me. And, I do not think you can time the market. But when you buy a stock is most important. If it's expensive, future returns will be low.

most_recent_comments

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2025-04-08T11:49:59+00:00

h1. Tom's most recent comments and long term dividend growth Dara are inside this site for subscribers. Comments What’s below here are thoughts that used to be on the front page. “The key is to wait for the market to decline and to pick companies with the best likelihood of maintaining their dividends

mr_market_miscalculates

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2009-03-09T11:50:17+00:00

Mr Market Miscalculates Mr. Market Miscalculates - The Bubble Years and Beyond by James Grant, 2008, Axios Press * Connolly Comment: well worth the under $20 price. book report moved inside

mutual_funds

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2012-07-11T14:58:44+00:00

Why I refuse to be sold mutual funds * EXCESSIVE ANNUAL FEES: Every year, even from no-load funds, the median Canadian equity fund will abscond with $567 in fees for each $25,000 invested (2.27%)...an astonishing amount. And every year, that's annually $567!

no-no_financial_products

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2013-10-22T10:57:12+00:00

h1. No-No Financial Products They put lipstick on the pig and sell it. * Market-linked GICs do not provide any income at all...none: no interest, no dividends. * FUNDS NO - over one hundred reasons why I resist being sold mutual funds * Target date/life cycle/age-based funds: variable annuities Aug 2009 - a FLIGHTS© plan

nutrition

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2013-12-19T18:30:15+00:00

Nutrition The South Beach Diet Gluten Solution by Arthur Agatston, M.D. I found this book better at explaining what goes on with gluten than the book I review just below. Here are four ideas I jotted down: Diagnosis for gluten sensitivity is made on the basic of symptions. Find out where you are on the gluten spectrum

overview

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2008-10-16T16:46:24+00:00

h1. Overview of DividendGrowth.ca h2. Demos * Brief overview * How to create new content * Subscriber management h2. Introduction * The site runs on the mature open source DokuWiki software. This means that it is free, and is supported by a very active community of users and developers. * All content is created using plain text, with special

potpourri

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2014-04-25T19:32:32+00:00

h1. POTPOURRI * Wisdom Investment Wisdom from various sources . . . adroit and pithy * Financial Planners - I do not recommend . . . * WSJ_May10 - a column about living from dividends in retirement * Market High - Read this if the market is high. * The Graham value I use is the square root of (EPS * BV * 22.5) where EPS is the average of the last three year's earnings. It's from The Intelligent Investor C-14.

preferred

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2012-01-27T11:12:38+00:00

Preferred Stock Preferreds Rob Carrick’s Saturday January 21 2012 column in the Report on Business was about preferred stock. Many consider preferreds the next step up from GICs and bonds. I don’t. People do not buy preferreds: they are lodged in portfolios by a broker if the client expresses any interest in income and concern about market fluctuations. The warm and cozy sweet talk people get about preferreds will mention their higher yield, tax-advantaged income and relatively stable price. Th…

preferred_shares

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2009-05-12T11:23:07+00:00

Stephen Jarislowsky did not mention preferred stock in The Investment Zoo. “I hate preferred.” Mr Jarislowsky said during a presentation in 1986. That's enough for me. Need another reason not to buy preferreds? The yield, while higher initially, is fixed. If you expect to live a few more years, why would you want a fixed income when you can have a growing income from common stock dividends? With common stock you start off with a lower yield (except perhaps in March 2009), but the dividend and y…

preferreds

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2008-10-16T16:46:24+00:00

Stephen Jarislowsky did not mention preferred stock in The Investment Zoo. That's enough for me. Need another reason not to buy preferreds? The yield, while higher initially, is fixed. If you expect to live a few more years, why would you want a fixed income when you can have a growing income from common stock dividends?

principal_protected_notes

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2008-10-16T16:46:24+00:00

PRINCIPAL PROTECTED NOTES - Don't be wooed by the hype. CIBC call 'these things' Premium Income Generation Deposit Notes and their ad in the Kingston Whig Standard on Feb 21 2007 claimed a “Guaranteed coupon of 6% payable in Year 1” This seems terrific: 6% in year one is indeed tempting. But that might be all you get: 6% first year and nothing at all in years 2, 3, 4 and 5. The small print in the ad says it all. And they love the word 'potential'. The ad continues:

professional_management

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2011-12-05T12:26:44+00:00

Professional Management? Purveyors of mutual funds tout professional management as an advantage for holding mutual funds: it's tosh. “Lipper Analytical, a research firm, has found that an unprecedented nine out of every ten American equity mutual funds have this year [1998] performed worse than the S&P 500, Wall Street's main stock market index.

re-balancing

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2009-02-05T21:01:39+00:00

Re-balancing The financial planners who peddle wrapped portfolio products of mutual funds tout re-balancing. I'm not into re-balancing. Rather, I go along with Stephen Jarislowsky in The Investment Zoo...top of page 104. I memorized it.* “If you have premium high compound growth non-cyclicals, it is not really necessary to get out if the stock price goes too high. If far too high, obviously you can trim a bit and pay some tax, but be sure that your gains have been real, not inflationary mirage…

readers_write

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2010-12-01T19:31:35+00:00

Readers Write: * “Those dividends are sure nice. The best part is I really don't have to pay much attention to the price of the shares. If I had to sell shares to develop a revenue stream, things would not be going nearly as well.” JB - C1A - Nov'09

report_summaries

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2026-02-26T04:56:12+00:00

Connolly Report (since 1981) Summaries * December 2019 Connolly Report, Volume #39 - decade long, year-by-year dividend data for 32 companies with CAGR on both dividends and price as the 2009 average price and the late 2019 prices are included? The data is unbelievably similar (as in some 80% correlation). These two pages are included with the access fee in the December 2019 blog.

second_quarter_2010

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2010-05-28T10:42:44+00:00

Second Quarter 2010 “To not only learn but also effectively implement investment lessons requires a disciplined, often contrary, and long-term-oriented investment approach. It requires a resolute focus on risk aversion rather than maximizing immediate returns, as well as an understanding of history, a sense of financial market cycles, and, at times, extraordinary patience.” Seth Karlman

second_quarter_2011

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2011-06-27T20:59:45+00:00

Second Quarter 2011 “Today it appears that no asset class offers a margin of safety.” (James Montier, March 2011) When you invest with no margin of safety, permanent impairment of capital can result. James Montier. If you are looking for dividend-growth stock ideas, check the four tables in Rob Carrick's Saturday June 25 2011 column:

second_quarter_2012

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2012-06-28T10:30:16+00:00

The cost of $1 in dividends is down $2.35 to $24.03 as of June 1st 2012 from a high of $26.38 earlier this year (March 24). The low cost of a dollar's worth of dividends from my list was $17.24 on February 21 2009. It's possible we'll hit this low price for dividends again. Why?

second_quarter_2013

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2013-04-24T20:23:35+00:00

If you still own mutual funds or ETFs you'd better watch Frontline's programme called The Retirement Gamble with Martin Smith and Robert Hiltonsmith. I watched it last night from 3:00 a.m. for an hour. My they did a good job. Here are some examples.

second_quarter_2014

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2014-08-17T12:36:48+00:00

The June 2014 Connolly Report has a list of all the 50 Canadian common stocks which have increased their dividend five years in a row. It is in order of C.A.P.E. (cyclically-adjusted price to earnings ratio) so you can tell which are less expensive.

second_quarter_2016

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2016-06-05T15:28:07+00:00

Second Quarter 2016 Recent research on long-duration investing (time-horizon arbitrage - why dividend growth investors hold) is outlined on the front page of the Connolly Report's 35th year edition (June 2016). What I've learned and experienced about dividend growth investing over three and more decades

sidebar

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2021-07-03T18:22:23+00:00

Contents * Subscribers * Most Recent Comments * Dividend Growth Strategy * Investment Topics * Investment Books * Potpourri * Report Summaries * Archives - report pages * External Links * Evidence it Works * No-No Financial Products * Starting to Invest * Don't Buy Mutual Funds * Nutrition * For the Record * About Us * Disclaimer

starting_to_invest

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2020-02-06T00:43:27+00:00

h1. Starting to Invest * re-read and revised in places in February 2012 1. You can invest yourself. In fact, you must learn to invest yourself. Here's one mighty powerful reason: if you had bought Bank of Nova Scotia common shares in 1990, you would have earned a total return of 31.6% per year up to the end of 2005. Of this, 14.2% was dividend yield on the original investment and 17.5% in capital appreciation. Thirty two percent a year. As they are required to say in mutual fund ads, the pas…

subscribers

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2021-07-03T18:23:34+00:00

Subscribers Once your account has been set up by Denise or I, click HERE to login and view subscriber-only content. Please read this before you log in for the first time or your login might not work: * username is all in lower case with first and last name joined by a period (tom.connolly or john.m.connolly or e.c.connolly). Use the Tab key to enter (not the enter key).

subscription_payment_test

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2016-01-07T14:05:30+00:00

tabs

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2009-02-07T17:04:52+00:00

home subscribers

target_date

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2010-12-09T14:43:41+00:00

Target date ==== a FLIGHTS plan © - TARGET Variable Annuity Funds. ==== by Tom Connolly The people who sell variable annuities have a convincing and polished presentation. They stress the guarantee and allege that it is simple: it all appears marvellous. It's not! If you are being lured by a financial planner, print out these ideas and look into the small print judiciously. Do a FLIGHTS plan before you invest.

the_case_against_etfs

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2016-11-01T12:18:59+00:00

ETFs - another view D R A F T Connolly Report White Page, Aug 1st 2016 ETFs, with exceptions, of course, have four fatal flaws: a lot of mediocre securities, too many holdings, not enough holding (the 'T' in ETF) and little or no increasing yield. In the total scheme of things, ETFs have not been around very long. Ben Graham wanted twenty years of continuous dividends before he purchased a stock. Few ETFs have a track record over a decade. ETFs are, however, being pyrrhically sold. The selling …

the_future_for_investors

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2009-09-28T10:08:46+00:00

The Future for Investors Connolly Report April 2005 Vol XXV No. 2 p.576 “I advise holding an asset that, though almost universally reviled today, will surely be prized tomorrow. It pays a low but fast rising return, and has a sexy four-letter ticker: CASH.

the_investment_zoo

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2020-09-08T17:45:54+00:00

A two four of reasons to buy The Investment Zoo by Stephen Jarislowsky If you are just starting to invest*, acquire The Investment Zoo and read pages 152, 90, 99, 111 If you already own BCE, invest in The Investment Zoo and read page 94. It may make you think twice.

third_quarter_2010

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2019-07-12T12:23:42+00:00

Third Quarter 2010 * “[T]he starting yield is very important to future returns. And it is currently low. (Buttonwood's blog, The Economist, September 13 2010) TC: This is the lesson of the day, week and month. What's he saying? Long term “80 percent of your total return is generated by the price you pay for the investment plus growth in the underlying cash flow

third_quarter_2011

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2011-09-24T14:59:53+00:00

Third Quarter 2011 Market Comment in early August 2011 after the S&P downgrade of American bonds: as stock prices fall, our yields rise...our next purchase will mean more retirement income per dollar invested. Life is good. An example: BCE at $36.20 now offers a dollar's worth of dividends for $17.48 (1 / yield).

third_quarter_2012

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2012-10-06T15:29:44+00:00

Third Quarter 2012 * Since 1970 “global stock prices have risen by a tepid 1.4% per year in real terms, while the total return, including re-invested dividends, has risen by a much greater 4.5%” after inflation, according to MSCI data compiled by mrb partners. DIVIDENDS HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR MOST OF THE RETURN ON STOCKS. Look at those numbers again: 1.4% on price and 4.5% with dividends. If the stock you buy does not pay a dividend, is it really worth investing for 1.4%? If you buy a stock that …

third_quarter_2013

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2013-09-14T13:50:31+00:00

Third Quarter 2013 * If you still hold mutual funds, you could own one hundred stocks or more. Financial advisors call this diversification. It's ludicrious. You mimic the market. If the market is up when you retire, you're lucky. If not, you might have to delay your retirement

third_quarter_2014

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2014-12-19T10:35:16+00:00

Third Quarter 2014 Here's why you should start dividend growth investing with individual stocks when you are young, in your 30s or 40s, say. Inside this site this morning I linked a column by John Heinzl about how a money manager in Windsor selected dividend growth common stocks. His method was a bit different than mine. We are always looking for new ideas. Read for ideas, and then think. Anyway, the example given was TD. One hundred TD shares were bought in 1983 for $4,000. The income from tho…

third_quarter_2015

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2015-07-23T19:04:12+00:00

Third Quarter 2015 30 years - a yield chart - For the benefit of paid subscribers with access inside dividend growth, I'm working on a yield chart for Canadian Utilities that goes back THIRTY years. Yes. Thirty years...back to 1985. I have been studying dividends for over 30 years. This data is my own dividend data. We want to find out if CU's recent yield rise is a blip or a significent movement which could mean an entry point for CU shares. $50 gets you inside this site and access to all kind…

thoughts_from_2011_12_and_13

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2019-07-12T12:25:41+00:00

Thoughts from 2010: Thoughts from 2010 DIVIDENDS MATTER: From December 1969 to December 2009, the compound total return with re-invested dividends for Canadian stocks was 5,285%. Not counting dividends, measuring stock-price gains alone, the gain over the same period was 1,481% (according to S&P in Barron's of March 22 2010). ♣ 5,285 vs 1,481 is right some significant? What's your conclusion? These numbers make me feel secure in my strategy: I buy good dividend paying stocks and do not trade ve…

u._s._equities

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2010-05-27T11:09:23+00:00

U. S. Equities Minus six point three per cent per year for the S&P 500 in Canadian dollars for the decade ending May 31 2009 is one reason I am glad I did not begin to follow American equities. That's - 6.3 annually. That's negative. On the other hand, over the same decade, roughly, the Canadian dividend stocks in my list had a average annual return of 9.0%. That's per year too. To obtain the difference between - 6.3 and + 9.0 do you add or subtract?

value_priced

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2011-05-24T10:19:10+00:00

Valuation * “Safety and value are qualities conferred not by the nature of an asset, but by the price at which it is acquired.” James Grant, Forbes October 28 2002 * “I believe in stocks for the long run - but only is purchased at the right price.

what_s_inside

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2018-10-08T11:01:00+00:00

What's inside this dividendgrowth web site for subscribers? * Years of experience - Tom Connolly began teaching investing in the 1960s. The Connolly Report on dividend growth stocks, specifically, is now in Volume 38 (since 1981). I'm a financial economist. B.Comm. 1964. I am NOT an advisor, never was, never will be. I provide (a) ideas, many of which you will not find elsewhere, (b) three ways to value stocks (yield, Graham value and C.A.P.E)

when_to_buy

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2011-09-22T19:39:20+00:00

When to buy A thought after being up at the cottage (March 2009) looking through Philip A. Fisher's Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits written in 1958. Fisher began his investment career in 1928. The last line of Fisher's book was the first line of the quotation below. Older books like this are worth reading again now when were are in a most serious financial crisis.

which_stock

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2009-05-18T15:01:26+00:00

Which Stock? May 6 2009 My apologies. This will not be the answer you were expecting. The question isn't so much which stock to buy. All the stocks in the list of dividend growth stocks I follow (ten financial and ten non-financials, roughly), and a few others, of course, are fine companies. Well, maybe there is one exception. The question is when to buy them? Valuation is all important (

wisdom

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2016-03-29T14:36:20+00:00

Investment Wisdom * “A high dividend yield, like a low price/earnings multiple, is a sign the market is undervaluing a stock.” John Authers' March 4th 2011 Financial Times ( TC: A high dividend yield does not mean a usually high dividend yield. It means a dividend yield that is high in relation to its own dividend yield average. The common stocks near the top of our list have yields higher than their own average.

wrap_accounts

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2009-05-12T11:26:43+00:00

WRAP ACCOUNTS I can't believe this person said this in his out loud voice: Wrap accounts free up advisors from having to concern themselves with asset allocation, oversight and monitoring the mix of client portfolios. “What advisors do best is manage the client relationship and build their businesses.

wsj_may10

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2010-11-04T16:06:17+00:00

WSJ_May10 Living from dividends in retirement. I did an interview with a reporter from the Dow Jones news service on May 20* about living from dividends in retirement. I gave Monica Gutschi some of my best arguments gleaned over well more than two decades of following the dividend growth strategy. Here's the summary of my before and after interview notes. ♣ Well before you retire, you gradually build up a portfolio of common stock in quality companies with a good record for providing increasing…

yield_dividend_growth

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2015-06-07T11:27:57+00:00

Yield + Dividend Growth * “The return that investors expect from stocks must be equal to the dividend yield plus the growth of dividends.” p.304 Valuing Wall Street by Smithers and Wright. * “The return from equities comprises the dividend yield, plus dividend growth, plus or minus any change in the rating (the price dividend ratio).” Buttonwood, The Economist, July 2 2011.

yield_on_cost

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2015-12-08T17:18:24+00:00

Yield on Cost “If you are planning to retire in 10 to 15 years, we think you should consider buying stocks that have long histories of dividend increases. While investors tend to look at the current yield (the indicated dividend dividend by the share price) of a stock, we believe

yoc_bns

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2011-07-25T18:59:43+00:00

Yield on Cost - an example of dividend growth driving price growth, of growing retirement income

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